Model track record
Every pick the model records is graded against the final score or box score at the price and venue it found, and measured against that venue's closing line. Picks are recorded when the model's edge after costs is at least 3.0%; nothing is ever placed and nothing is removed.
3766 graded picks over 8 days since Sep 9, 2026 · 2207 pending fewer than two weeks of picks — variance dominates these numbers
| By league | Graded | W-L-P | Win % | ROI | Units | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 2556 | 1811-738-7 | 71.0% | +1.1% | +27.17u | +0.7% |
| NFL | 1210 | 495-702-13 | 41.3% | +58.3% | +705.63u | +0.4% |
| By market | Graded | W-L-P | Win % | ROI | Units | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 1606 | 1111-488-7 | 69.5% | −3.6% | −57.19u | +0.4% |
| Spread | 1529 | 867-662-0 | 56.7% | +49.1% | +751.14u | +1.0% |
| Player props | 476 | 253-210-13 | 54.6% | +4.2% | +20.00u | +0.0% |
| Moneyline | 155 | 75-80-0 | 48.4% | +12.2% | +18.85u | +0.5% |
| By venue | Graded | W-L-P | Win % | ROI | Units | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 2089 | 1488-601-0 | 71.2% | +8.9% | +185.18u | +0.8% |
| Polymarket | 946 | 429-517-0 | 45.4% | +54.9% | +519.70u | +0.5% |
| DraftKings (ESPN) | 731 | 389-322-20 | 54.7% | +3.8% | +27.93u | +0.1% |
| Priced at | Picks | Implied | Won | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0% to 45.0% | 912 | 22.6% | 33.6% | +10.9% |
| 45.0% to 50.0% | 96 | 47.6% | 44.8% | −2.8% |
| 50.0% to 55.0% | 727 | 52.4% | 56.0% | +3.6% |
| 55.0% to 60.0% | 139 | 57.3% | 59.0% | +1.7% |
| 60.0% to 65.0% | 162 | 62.5% | 64.2% | +1.7% |
| 65.0% to 100.0% | 1710 | 79.8% | 79.8% | −0.0% |
| DraftKings (ESPN) · priced at | Picks | Implied | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0% to 45.0% | 11 | 31.6% | 0.0% |
| 45.0% to 50.0% | 9 | 48.4% | 33.3% |
| 50.0% to 55.0% | 659 | 52.3% | 55.8% |
| 55.0% to 60.0% | 15 | 57.0% | 46.7% |
| 60.0% to 65.0% | 8 | 61.9% | 75.0% |
| 65.0% to 100.0% | 9 | 65.5% | 55.6% |
| Kalshi · priced at | Picks | Implied | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0% to 45.0% | 326 | 26.9% | 35.6% |
| 45.0% to 50.0% | 39 | 47.6% | 46.2% |
| 50.0% to 55.0% | 24 | 53.0% | 45.8% |
| 55.0% to 60.0% | 55 | 57.5% | 67.3% |
| 60.0% to 65.0% | 86 | 63.0% | 59.3% |
| 65.0% to 100.0% | 1559 | 80.5% | 80.5% |
| Polymarket · priced at | Picks | Implied | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0% to 45.0% | 575 | 20.0% | 33.0% |
| 45.0% to 50.0% | 48 | 47.4% | 45.8% |
| 50.0% to 55.0% | 44 | 52.5% | 63.6% |
| 55.0% to 60.0% | 69 | 57.3% | 55.1% |
| 60.0% to 65.0% | 68 | 61.9% | 69.1% |
| 65.0% to 100.0% | 142 | 73.1% | 73.2% |
| Week of | Graded | Units | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14 | 841 | +103.78u | +732.79u |
| Sep 7 | 2925 | +629.01u | +629.01u |
ROI is profit over stake on graded picks at the recorded price; CLV is the closing break-even probability at the pick's venue minus the pick's own break-even (positive means the price beat the close). Pushes count as graded with zero profit.